FINAL
REPORT
for
(MBTC)
Project #2005
Wednesday,
March 14, 2001
Darin Nutter, Ph.D., P.E.1
Richard Cassady, Ph.D.2
John English, Ph.D., P.E 2.
Don Taylor, Ph.D., P.E.3
Chet Tuck Wong2
1 – Department of Industrial
Engineering,
2 – Department of Mechanical
Engineering,
3 – Department of Industrial
Engineering,
ABSTRACT
The shipment of
processed meats, like poultry, dictates the necessity of using refrigerated
trailer units (commonly call reefers).
Reefer failures occur and have serious and costly effects on the
performance of rural and urban transportation systems typical of the poultry
industry. This project explored the
measurable impact of reefer failures through identifying potential reefer
failure modes (using FMEA, FTA, and Pareto analysis) and the development of a
simulation model based on common poultry industry trucking practices. Reported performance measures include the
number of reefer failures and 7-year costs due to both delays in delivery and
refrigeration system repairs.
INTRODUCTION
The transportation system of the poultry processing industry embeds multi-layered pick-up and delivery points (like hubs): kill facilities, production facilities and distribution facilities. Live birds are collected from the rural domain of the farmer and delivered to the kill facility. From the kill facility, cleaned birds are transported to the processing facilities, and once the birds are processed, complex shipping rules are implemented to insure that appropriate inventory levels of various product types are maintained at the national distribution centers. The hierarchical design is typical of many transportation systems, but the perishable aspect of the shipped material presents unique challenges.
The shipment of processed meats, like chicken, dictates the necessity of using refrigerated trailer units (commonly call reefers). As the case with any mechanical device, reefer failures (of various modes) are observed and have serious and costly impacts on the operation. At the kill facility, limited warehouse space is available, and the reefer units are used for storage following the killing process and prior to shipment. The time the product is held in the reefer unit is limited, and the trailer time is spent in the facility grounds where local maintenance is available, yet any reefer failure still costs time and money. As the product progresses through the operation, reliable reefer performance becomes even more critical. Important issues include the dispatching rules, fleet size, season of the year, availability of third party reefer repair, time of day, freight/product mixture and geography.
This project explored the measurable impact of reefer failures on the economical and logistical performance of the rural and urban transportation systems typical of the poultry industry. The work presented in this project was appropriate to any organization having refrigerated transportation systems. In this project, we explored and documented the impact of refrigerated unit failures on the logistical infrastructure within the poultry processing industry, namely Tyson Foods, Inc. As a result of these activities, industries having multi-layered pick-up and delivery points will be able to identify opportunities for improved performance and to determine how factors influence total cost.
This project evolved through four successive phases. In phase one, reefer failure types and associated failure distributions were identified by reviewing the pertinent literature and discussion/validation with Tyson’s personnel. The second phase of the project incorporated the failure distributions with the known logistical system at Tyson Foods, Inc. to construct a generalized simulation model to measure the potential impact of reefer failures. The third phase of the project utilized the simulation model to construct a useful set of experimental scenarios and to identify how factors influence total cost. The fourth phase of the project consists of documenting and distributing the findings of the research.
Phase I: Reefer Failure Description
Efforts during this phase included many discussions with Tyson Foods personnel (management and maintenance), the inspection of some reefer units under repair, and a thorough review of pertinent Thermo King operation and maintenance literature. This first step identified the potential failure modes associated with the trailer’s refrigeration system. There were two methods used to identify or analyze potential system failure modes and their effects on the local and system trucking operations. One method used was Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), and the second was Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). Results from both are described below.
Failures Mode and Effects
Analysis (FMEA)
Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) is a structured, qualitative analysis of a system, subsystem, or function to identify potential system failure modes, their causes, and the effects on operation associated with each failure mode occurrence (Bowles and Bonnell, 1998). The FMEA can be extended to include an assessment of the severity of the failure effect and its probability of occurrence, i.e. a Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA). A FMEA/FMECA provides a basis for recognizing component failure modes identified in components and system prototype tests and failure modes developed from historical “lessons learned” in design requirements. It aids in identifying unacceptable failure effects that prevent achieving design requirements. It is also used to assess the safety of system components and to identify design modifications and corrective action needed to mitigate the effects of a failure on the system. It is used in planning system maintenance activities, subsystem design, and as a framework for system failure detection and isolation (Bowles and Bonnell, 1998).
In this project, the main purpose of using FMEA was to identify potential system failure modes and their effects on the local and system operations. Before analyzing the system failure modes and their effects, the first step was to learn the system. Currently, Tyson Foods is using the Thermo King refrigerated unit (reefer), and FMEA is based on Thermo King’s system. The functional relationships between the different system components were most easily shown as a functional block diagram, such as in Figure 1 (refrigeration cycle) and Figure 2 (defrost/heating cycle). Those functional block diagrams help analysts to understand the relationships between the system components.
The next step of the FMEA was to determine all the ways in which each component can fail and the effect that each failure mode will have on the refrigeration system. Effects were determined at each level of the system hierarchy – the effect on the module containing the failed component (local), the effect on every subsystem of which the component was a part, and the effect on the total system. Results from the FMEA can be seen in Table 1. For example, a broken compressor crankshaft causes the compressor to fail at the local level, and subsequently causes the refrigeration system to fail at the system level. The result of a total system failure can be product delivery delays, product damage, and incurred costs. The process of identifying possible failure modes and determining their effects on the system operation helped develop a better understanding of the relationships between the different system components.
Figure 1. Functional Block Diagram – Refrigeration Cycle (Thermo King).

Figure 2. Functional Block Diagram – Defrost and
Heating (Thermo King).

Table 1. FMEA of the trailer refrigeration system.
|
|
Component |
Function |
Failure Mode |
Failure Effects |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Local |
System |
|
|
Compressor |
Moves
refrigerant and increases |
1)
Bearing loose |
Noisy
compressor |
Reliability
of the system |
|
|
|
refrigerant
gas temperature |
or burned out |
|
decreases |
|
|
|
and
pressure |
2)
Broken valve |
Low
head pressure |
Unable
to pump down system |
|
|
|
|
plate |
Noisy
compressor |
Unable
to pull/hold vacuum on |
|
|
|
|
|
|
low side |
|
|
|
|
3)
Too much oil |
|
Unit
not refrigerating |
|
|
|
|
4)
Broken crank shaft and seals leak |
Compressor
not functioning |
System
failure |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Discharge
|
Used
for isolating and servicing |
1)
Leaking |
Low
head pressure |
System
will not function |
|
|
service
|
the
discharge side of the |
|
Unable
to pull vacuum |
properly |
|
|
valve |
compressor |
|
on
low side |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Discharge
|
Reduces
vibration transfer |
1)
Leaking/wear |
Flexibility
decrease |
Vibration
will increase and |
|
|
vibrasorber |
allows
for a flexible discharge |
out |
|
damage
the nearest |
|
|
|
line |
|
|
components |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Three-Way
|
Directs
the flow of refrigerant |
1)
Does not respond |
The
spool moves and |
Unit
cools in heat and defrost |
|
|
valve |
to
either the evaporator or |
to pilot solenoid |
sticks
at one side |
cycle
or heats in refrigeration |
|
|
|
condenser |
|
|
cycle |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Unit
not refrigerating and not |
|
|
|
|
|
|
heating
or defrosting |
|
|
Condenser
|
Improves
three-way valve |
1)
Leaks around |
High
pressure gas leaks |
Unit
not heating or defrosting |
|
|
pressure |
heat-to-cool
response time |
valve |
into
the unit |
|
|
|
bypass |
|
|
|
|
|
|
check
valve |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Condenser
|
Allows
refrigerant to condense |
1)
Dirt and foreign |
Inefficiency
on air flow |
Decrease
efficiency of the |
|
|
|
by
transferring heat to ambient |
objects in the fins |
recirculating
over |
unit |
|
|
|
air
flowing across fins and coils |
2)
Idle pulley condenser fan broken |
the
coil |
|
|
|
Condenser |
Stops
refrigerant flow from |
1)
Leaks / seat |
High
or low suction |
Unit
not refrigerating and not |
|
|
check |
the
receiver tank during |
damage |
pressure |
heating
or defrosting |
|
|
valve |
heat
and defrost |
|
|
Unable
to pump down system |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
High
pressure |
Relieves
extremely high |
1)
Leaks |
Lost
refrigerant |
Decrease
efficiency of the |
|
|
relief |
refrigerant
pressure from |
|
|
system |
|
|
valve |
the
system |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 1. FMEA of the trailer refrigeration system (continued).
|
|
Component |
Function |
Failure Mode |
Failure Effects |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Local |
System |
|
|
Receiver
tank |
Allows
refrigerant to flow |
1)
Leaks |
Refrigerant
flows out |
Unable
to pump down system |
|
|
outlet |
from
the receiver tank and |
|
|
|
|
|
valve |
is
used for servicing the low |
|
|
|
|
|
|
side |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Expansion
|
Meters
the liquid refrigerant |
1)
Opened too much |
High
suction pressure |
Suction
line frosting back |
|
|
valve |
to
the evaporator in the |
2)
Closed too much |
Low
suction pressure |
Unit
not refrigerating |
|
|
|
cool
mode |
3)
Needle eroded or |
High
suction pressure |
Suction
line frosting back |
|
|
|
|
leaking |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4)
Partially closed by |
Low
suction pressure |
Unit
not refrigerating |
|
|
|
|
ice, dirt or wax |
|
Unit
operating in a vacuum |
|
|
Expansion
|
Senses
temperature at the |
1)
Improperly mounted |
High
suction pressure |
Suction
line frosting back |
|
|
valve
feeler |
evaporator
outlet and assists |
2)
Making pure |
High
suction pressure |
Suction
line frosting back |
|
|
bulb |
in
controlling refrigerant flow |
contact |
|
Unit
not refrigerating |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Evaporator |
Transfers
heat between |
1)
Dirty or plugged |
|
Gradual
reduction in capacity |
|
|
|
refrigerated
compartment air |
coils |
|
|
|
|
|
and
refrigerant moving through its coils |
2)
Plugged passes in the coils distribution |
|
Gradual
reduction in capacity |
|
|
|
|
3)
Tubes damaged |
|
Gradual
reduction in capacity |
|
|
|
|
4)
Insufficient |
|
Rapid
cycling between cool |
|
|
|
|
circulation |
|
and
heat |
|
|
Suction
|
Reduces
vibration transfer |
1)
Leaking/wear |
Flexibility
decrease |
Vibration
will increase and |
|
|
vibrasorber |
and
allows for a flexible |
out |
|
damage
the nearest |
|
|
|
suction
line |
|
|
components |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 1. FMEA of the trailer refrigeration system (continued).
|
|
Component |
Function |
Failure Mode |
Failure Effects |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Local |
System |
|
|
Suction
|
Used
for isolating and |
1)
Leaks |
High
suction pressure |
Unable
to pump down system |
|
|
service |
servicing
the suction side |
|
|
|
|
|
valve |
of
the compressor |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Throttling
|
Regulates
refrigerant vapor |
1)
Leaks |
Refrigerant
flows out |
Overload
the motor or engine |
|
|
valve |
pressure
entering the |
|
|
Decrease
efficiency of the |
|
|
|
compressor |
|
|
unit |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Unit
not refrigerating and not |
|
|
|
|
|
|
heating
or defrosting |
|
|
Pilot
solenoid |
When
energized, this |
1)
Coil, needle, and |
|
Unit
not refrigerating |
|
|
|
electrically-controlled
valve |
seat
failures or |
|
Unit
not heating or defrosting |
|
|
|
permits
the three-way valve |
malfunction |
|
Unable
to pump down system |
|
|
|
to
shift from cool to heat |
|
|
Unit
cools in heat and defrost |
|
|
|
|
|
|
cycle |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Unit
heats in refrigerating |
|
|
|
|
|
|
cycle |
|
|
Bypass
check |
Prevents
refrigerant from |
1)
Leaks or |
Refrigerant
flows into |
Unable
to pump down system |
|
|
valve |
flowing
into the bypass line |
malfunction |
bypass
line when the |
|
|
|
|
when
the unit is in the cool |
|
unit
is in the cool cycle |
|
|
|
|
cycle |
|
|
|
|
|
Bypass
|
Provides
for checking and |
1)
Leakage around |
Refrigerant
flows into |
Unable
to pump down system |
|
|
service |
servicing
of the bypass line |
the
stem |
bypass
line when the |
|
|
|
valve |
and
bypass check valve |
|
unit
is in the cool cycle |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fault Tree Analysis (FTA)
The second method used to identify failure modes was Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). A Fault Tree Analysis is a graphical representation of logical relationships between events (usually failure events). This method has long been used for the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the failure modes of critical systems (Koren and Childs, 1995). A fault tree provides a mathematical and graphical representation of the combination of events, which can lead to system failure. The construction of a fault tree model can provide insight into the system by illuminating potential weaknesses with respect to reliability or safety. A fault tree can help with the diagnosis of failure symptoms (modes) by illustrating which combinations of events could lead to the observed failure symptoms. The quantitative analysis of a fault tree is used to determine the probability of system failure, given the probability of occurrence for failure events (Koren and Childs, 1995).
If performed manually, the construction of a fault tree provides a systematic method for analyzing and documenting the potential causes of system failure. The analyst begins with the failure scenario being considered and decomposes the failure system into its possible causes. Each possible cause is then investigated and further refined until the basic causes of the failure are understood. In other words, FTA provides a logical framework for understanding the way in which a system can fail, which is often as important as understanding how a system operates.
A fault tree consists of the undesired top events (system or subsystem failures), linked to more basic events by logic gates. The top events are resolved into their constituent causes, connected by “AND” or “OR” logic gates, which are then further resolved until basic events are identified. The basic events represent basic causes for the failures, and represent the limit of resolution of the fault tree (Koren and Childs, 1995).
In this project, FTA was used to identify the potential causes of reefer failures. Figures 3 and 4 show the refrigeration cycle FTA and defrost/heating cycle FTA for the Thermo King reefer units, respectively. The FTA process began with the scenario where the reefer system failed to operate followed by the decomposition of the failed system into its possible causes. Each possible cause was then investigated and further refined until the basic causes of the failure were understood.
The FMEA and FTA identified the following possible reefer component failures:
After identifying the reefer failures types, failure data was collected for appoximately 30 trailers from each of six fleet years (1990-1995). These data are shown in Tables 2-7.

![]()

Table 2. 1990 Trailers Failure Data.
|
Year = 90 |
|
|
|
Total Trailers
= 27 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Failure Type |
Number of
Failures |
% of Trailer
Failures |
|
|
|
|
|
Compressor |
43 |
68% |
|
Discharge
Vibrasorber |
5 |
8% |
|
Suction Vibrasorber |
9 |
14% |
|
3-Way-Valve |
2 |
3% |
|
Pilot Solenoid |
0 |
0% |
|
Throttling Valve |
1 |
2% |
|
By-pass Check Valve |
3 |
5% |
|
Evaporator |
0 |
0% |
|
Expansion Valve |
0 |
0% |
|
Condenser |
0 |
0% |
|
Heat Exchanger |
0 |
0% |
|
Receiver Tank |
0 |
0% |
|
Accumulator |
0 |
0% |
|
Total Failures |
63 |
100% |

Figure 5.
1990 Trailers Pareto Analysis.
Table 3. 1991 Trailers Failure Data.
|
Year = 91 |
|
|
|
Total Trailers = 30 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Failure Type |
Number of
Failure |
% of Total
Failures |
|
|
|
|
|
Compressor |
55 |
75% |
|
Discharge
Vibrasorber |
7 |
10% |
|
Suction Vibrasorber |
3 |
4% |
|
3-Way-Valve |
2 |
3% |
|
Pilot Solenoid |
2 |
3% |
|
Throttling Valve |
0 |
0% |
|
By-pass Check Valve |
0 |
0% |
|
Evaporator |
0 |
0% |
|
Expansion Valve |
1 |
1% |
|
Condenser |
2 |
3% |
|
Heat Exchanger |
0 |
0% |
|
Receiver Tank |
1 |
1% |
|
Accumulator |
0 |
0% |
|
Total Failures |
73 |
100% |

Figure 6. 1991 Trailers Pareto Analysis.
Table 4. 1992 Trailers Failure Data.
|
Year = 92 |
|
|
|
Total Trailers = 90 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Failure Type |
Number of
Failure |
% of Total
Failures |
|
|
|
|
|
Compressor |
25 |
48% |
|
Discharge
Vibrasorber |
10 |
19% |
|
Suction Vibrasorber |
4 |
8% |
|
3-Way-Valve |
1 |
2% |
|
Pilot Solenoid |
4 |
8% |
|
Throttling Valve |
2 |
4% |
|
By-pass Check Valve |
1 |
2% |
|
Evaporator |
1 |
2% |
|
Expansion Valve |
1 |
2% |
|
Condenser |
1 |
2% |
|
Heat Exchanger |
1 |
2% |
|
Receiver Tank |
0 |
0% |
|
Accumulator |
1 |
2% |
|
Total Failures |
52 |
100% |

Figure 7. 1992 Trailers Pareto Analysis.
Table 5. 1993 Trailers Failure Data.
|
Year = 93 |
|
|
|
Total Trailers = 26 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Failure Type |
Number of
Failure |
% of Total
Failures |
|
|
|
|
|
Compressor |
19 |
48% |
|
Discharge
Vibrasorber |
11 |
28% |
|
Suction Vibrasorber |
2 |
5% |
|
3-Way-Valve |
3 |
8% |
|
Pilot Solenoid |
1 |
3% |
|
Throttling Valve |
0 |
0% |
|
By-pass Check Valve |
0 |
0% |
|
Evaporator |
0 |
0% |
|
Expansion Valve |
1 |
3% |
|
Condenser |
3 |
8% |
|
Heat Exchanger |
0 |
0% |
|
Receiver Tank |
0 |
0% |
|
Accumulator |
0 |
0% |
|
Total Failures |
40 |
100% |

Figure 8. 1993 Trailers Pareto Analysis.
Table 6. 1994 Trailers Failure Data.
|
Year = 94 |
|
|
|
Total Trailers = 30 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Failure Type |
Number of
Failure |
% of Total
Failures |
|
|
|
|
|
Compressor |
26 |
44% |
|
Discharge
Vibrasorber |
19 |
32% |
|
Suction Vibrasorber |
9 |
15% |
|
3-Way-Valve |
0 |
0% |
|
Pilot Solenoid |
1 |
2% |
|
Throttling Valve |
2 |
3% |
|
By-pass Check Valve |
2 |
3% |
|
Evaporator |
0 |
0% |
|
Expansion Valve |
0 |
0% |
|
Condenser |
0 |
0% |
|
Heat Exchanger |
0 |
0% |
|
Receiver Tank |
0 |
0% |
|
Accumulator |
0 |
0% |
|
Total Failures |
59 |
100% |

Figure 9. 1994 Trailers Pareto Analysis.
Table 7. 1995 Trailers Failure Data.
|
Year = 95 |
|
|
|
Total Trailers = 28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Failure Type |
Number of
Failure |
% of Total
Failures |
|
|
|
|
|
Compressor |
9 |
31% |
|
Discharge
Vibrasorber |
5 |
17% |
|
Suction Vibrasorber |
2 |
7% |
|
3-Way-Valve |
5 |
17% |
|
Pilot Solenoid |
5 |
17% |
|
Throttling Valve |
0 |
0% |
|
By-pass Check Valve |
0 |
0% |
|
Evaporator |
0 |
0% |
|
Expansion Valve |
2 |
7% |
|
Condenser |
1 |
3% |
|
Heat Exchanger |
0 |
0% |
|
Receiver Tank |
0 |
0% |
|
Accumulator |
0 |
0% |
|
Total Failures |
29 |
100% |

Figure 10. 1995 Trailers Pareto Analysis.
Reliability Analysis
The next step in the project was to characterize the gathered failure data into a useful form. Reliability Analysis Software (Elsayed, 1996) was used to generate both a best-fit probability distribution and the mean time between failures (MTBF) for each failure type. Due to the infrequent number of failures for failure types other than compressors, it was determined necessary to group them into two sets, “compressor” failures and the remaining “other” failures. Also, trailer fleet years 1990-1992 were considered “old” and trailers 1993-1995 considered “new”. For each combination of old/new and compressor/other, an exponential distribution was used to model the time to failure. The following MTBFs were computed:
·
Old compressor = 520 hours
·
New compressor = 799 hours
·
Old others = 1083 hours
·
New others = 585 hours
Note that all failure data were based on calendar time, not system run time.
A simulation model of inbound and outbound trailer movement at Tyson’s Berryville facility was constructed using the simulation language SIMNET II. Trailers were categorized as either old or new. Failures were classified as either compressor failures or other. A key assumption in the model is that no trailer shortages occur. Testing of the simulation model indicated that a simulation run length of 7 years was appropriate for generating accurate results and 20 replications of the model provided adequate precision in performance estimates. The performance measures estimated from the output included: repair costs, delay costs, total costs (the sum of repair and delay costs), and the number of failures. A flowchart of the simulation code is shown in Figure 11.
Having tested the simulation model, the next phase of the analysis was to determine the effect of certain factors on the performance of the distribution system under consideration. Five factors were chosen for consideration:
A: frequency of occurrence for delay
This value is a percentage which represents the probability that a failure results in substantial delay of a product shipment. These delays could result in charges to the trucking division (i.e., cost penalty). Input values for this factor range between 3-10%.
B: MTBF multiplier
This factor is used to adjust MTBF values. For example, if the estimated MTBF values are to be used, then this factor would have a value of 1. A value of less than 1 would correspond to a degradation in the failure rate of trailers. For example, a value of 0.25 would imply a MTBF 4 times greater than the estimated value.
C: repair time multiplier
This factor is used to adjust the time required to perform trailer repairs. Note that in this case, slower repair procedures would imply that this factor has a value of greater than 1. A value of 1.0 utilizes the projected repair times provided by Tyson Foods.
D: old trailer percentage
This factor designates the percentage of trailers in the system fleet that are categorized as old. Input values for this factor range between 25-75%.
E: delay time multiplier
This factor is used to adjust the amount of time consumed by substantial delays. A value of 1.0 will utilize the delay times provided by Tyson Foods.

Figure 11. Flowchart showing simulation
logic excluding data collection and output.
The objective of the experimental design and analysis was to determine which of these factors and which interactions between factors have a significant effect on the performance of the system. The experimental design used in this analysis was a 25 factorial design. Therefore, low and high values for each of the five factors were chosen for experimentation. These values are summarized in the table below.
Table 8. Summary of five factors.
|
Factor |
Low Value (-1) |
High Value (+1) |
|
|
|
|
|
A: frequency of occurrence for delay |
3% |
10% |
|
B: MTBF multiplier |
1.0 |
0.25 |
|
C: repair time multiplier |
1.0 |
4.0 |
|
D: old trailer percentage |
25% |
75% |
|
E: delay time multiplier |
1.0 |
4.0 |
Thirty-two (32) experiments were conducted by simulating the distribution system using each combination of the low and high values for the five factors. Each of the 32 experiments was replicated 20 times.
Results and Analysis
Primary results of the simulation experiments are captured in Tables 9-12. An analysis of variance (ANOVA) was performed to determine which effects and which interactions between factors have a statistically significant effect on the system performance measures. There are 31 potential main effects and interactive effects:
· 5 main effects (A, B, C, D and E)
· 10 two-way interactive effects (AB, AC, … , DE)
· 10 three way interactive effects (ABC, ABD, … , CDE)
· 5 four-way interactive effects (ABCD, ABCE, ABDE, ACDE, BCDE)
· 1 five-way interactive effects (ABCDE)
Note that to complete the ANOVA, some subset of these factors must be assumed to be insignificant. Results from each ANOVA and the models derived from each are described below. ANOVA and models for individual performance measures were also developed. Experimental results are shown in Tables 9-12 while Tables 13-16 contain the main and interactive effects that were found to be significant for each individual performance measure.
Factors assumed to be insignificant:
A: frequency of occurrence of delay
E: delay time multiplier
all interactive effects containing A and/or E
Factors found to be significant:
B: MTBF multiplier
C: repair time multiplier
D: old trailer percentage
BC, BD, CD, BCD
Model of 7-Year Total Repair Cost:
Total Repair Cost = $30521 + $18444 XB + $18327 XC - $902 XD
+ $11111 XBXC - $520 XBXD - $648 XCXD
- $384 XBXCXD
Note that:
![]()
![]()
![]()
The model is only valid for values of XB, XC and XD between -1 and 1.
Factors assumed to be insignificant:
C: repair time multiplier
all interactive effects containing C
Factors found to be significant:
A: frequency of occurrence of delay
B: MTBF multiplier
AB
Model of 7-Year Total Delay Cost:
Total Delay Cost = $6601 + $3488 XA + $4080 XB + $2174 XAXB
Note that:
![]()
The model is only valid for values of XA and XB between -1 and 1.
Factors assumed to be insignificant:
interactive effects not found to be significant during any portion of repair and delay cost analysis
Factors found to be significant:
A: frequency of occurrence of delay
B: MTBF multiplier
C: repair time multiplier
D: old trailer percentage
E: delay time multiplier
AB, BC, BD, BE, CD, BCD
Model of 7-Year Total Cost:
Total Cost = $37122 + $3385 XA + $22524 XB + $18471 XC - $917 XD - $310 XE
+ $2226 XAXB + $11201 XBXC - $569 XBXD - $445 XBXE
- $819 XCXD - $617 XBXCXD
Note that:
![]()
The model is only valid for values of XA, XB, XC, XD and XE between -1 and 1.
Factors assumed to be insignificant:
A: frequency of occurrence of delay
C: repair time multiplier
E: delay time multiplier
all interactive effects including one or more of A, C and E
Factors found to be significant:
B: MTBF multiplier
Model of 7-Year Total Number of Failures:
Total Number of Failures = 144 + 87 XB
Note that the model is only valid for values of XB between -1 and 1.
Analysis Tool
A spreadsheet was created which allows the user to input actual values for the five experimental factors. The spreadsheet then estimates each of the system performance measures using the models derived from the ANOVA. Figure 12 contains a screen capture of this spreadsheet.
Table 9. Repair cost simulation results.
|
|
A |
B |